China’s clean energy revolution is reshaping the global energy map, says Yao Li, CEO of SIA Energy, in the latest episode of the Al-Attiyah Foundation podcast. Yao Li details how the country’s aggressive renewable buildout is driving down emissions and upending global markets.

“China added 130 gigawatts of solar and wind capacity in the first four months of 2024 alone, that is equivalent to the entire installed capacity of Japan,” Yao Li highlighted. “Renewables now make up around 65% of incremental power supply in 2024, and this is already leading to a measurable drop in carbon emissions.”

Yao Li emphasised that China's carbon emissions peaked in March 2024 and have begun a “gradual decline,” with thermal power generation falling by more than 5% year-on-year in Q1. Backing this trend, data from Carbon Brief confirms China's emissions fell for the third consecutive quarter in early 2024, largely driven by the clean energy boom and EV adoption.

Looking ahead, Yao Li disclosed that China’s final coal-fired power plant will come online by 2028. Coal’s role in electricity generation — now at 55% — is projected to fall to around 20% by 2040. “China is not exiting coal overnight,” she said. “But it is laying the groundwork for a low-carbon grid that still secures baseload reliability.”

During the podcast, Yao Li also analysed China’s compliance with the Europe Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). CBAM is policy designed to put a carbon price on certain imported goods, aiming to prevent “carbon leakage” and encourage cleaner industrial production in non-EU countries.   

“We view the EU’s CBAM as a strong external signal,” Yao Li noted. “It is pushing sectors like steel, aluminum, and cement into China’s ETS (Emissions Trading System), which now covers about 6% of total emissions.”

Turning to the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, Yao Li explained the emergence of “Tier 2” Chinese LNG players — downstream firms that now control 32% of the nation’s import capacity and are forecasted to reach 40% by 2040. She stressed their growing independence, vertical integration ambitions, and leverage over traditional state-owned giants.

Yao Li also addressed ongoing geopolitical dynamics, including tariffs on U.S. LNG and energy ties with the Gulf: “Despite the 25% tariff, U.S. LNG will continue to reach China” she stated. “And in the Gulf, China sees both a strategic energy partner and a growing market for its high-tech exports.

The Al-Attiyah Foundation podcast continues to be a platform for high-level energy dialogue, bringing insight from global industry leaders. To listen to the full podcast, visit the Al-Attiyah Foundation’s website: https://www.abhafoundation.org