September - 2022
Geopolitics of the Energy Transition
Global LNG prices surged to never-beforewitnessed heights in 2022, as market tightness and concern over supply gripped the market. The interconnectedness of gas markets in Europe and Asia-Pacific through LNG trade has resulted in the European benchmark, Dutch TTF, topping US$ 60 / MMBtu in 4Q 2021 while the spot Asian LNG benchmark, JKM, hit nearly US$ 60 / MMBtu in March 2022.
What is the short-term outlook for LNG markets across the Asia-Pacific region, and what are the key uncertainties? The increasing penetration of renewables in the global energy mix, the rise of electrification from 20% currently to 60% by mid-century, and improvements in energy efficiency and storage are essential characteristics of the energy transition, which will have wide-ranging and profound geopolitical consequences. How will the energy transition impact fossil fuel exporters and importers, green technology anufacturers, and countries rich in critical minerals and metals? Which countries could exploit their dominant positions within green energy supply chains? How will the energy transition impact great-power competition?