Doha: 15th of January 2026

As the dust settles on COP30, the world is still reckoning with what unfolded in Belém. After two fraught weeks of negotiations, disruptions and hardened geopolitical divides, the latest Energy Research Paper from the Al-Attiyah Foundation offers one of the first comprehensive analyses of a conference many observers have already described as chaotic, divisive and defining. COP30: “The COP of Truth” and the Road to Türkiye argues that while ambition fell short of scientific necessity, the outcomes nonetheless signal an important shift in global climate diplomacy. 

Held in the Brazilian Amazon, COP30 was expected to deliver clarity on the world’s transition away from fossil fuels. Instead, despite a push from more than 80 countries for binding phase-out language, the final decision text reverted to voluntary pathways, echoing the softer “UAE Consensus” established at COP28. The Foundation notes that this outcome reflects a transformed geopolitical landscape: the EU stood largely isolated, the United States was absent for the first time in three decades of COPs, and emerging powers, working alongside major fossil-fuel producers, exerted far greater influence on the final agreement. 

Yet the summit delivered meaningful incremental gains. More than 122 countries submitted new or updated climate plans, with 89 percent now covering their entire economies. Global emissions are projected to decline for the first time this decade, landing around 12 percent below 2019 levels by 2035, still far from the 55 percent reduction needed to keep 1.5°C within reach, and with parties acknowledging openly for the first time that overshooting that threshold is likely. 
On adaptation, countries agreed to triple finance commitments to US$120 billion annually, forming part of a larger US$300 billion public finance goal. But as the report highlights, this covers only about 30 percent of the estimated US$400 billion developing countries will need each year by 2035. Loss and damage finance saw modest operational steps, including the opening of the first funding window of the new global loss and damage fund. Its initial US$250 million allocation, however, is dwarfed by global loss and damage costs already exceeding US$724 billion annually. 

Nature emerged as one of the few genuine bright spots. Brazil launched the Tropical Forests Forever Facility, securing US$6.7 billion in initial funding to reward countries for conserving tropical forests. Additional pledges targeted savannahs, mangroves and Indigenous territories, while a renewed US$1.8 billion land-tenure initiative signalled widening global recognition of the link between ecosystems, rights and climate resilience. 

For the first time, global trade became a central flashpoint at a COP. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism provoked intense debate over competitiveness, climate equity and the future of low-carbon exports, setting the stage for trade to play an even larger role in COP31 and COP32. Carbon markets advanced slowly but structurally, with refinements to the Paris Agreement’s new crediting mechanism and the formal sunset of the Clean Development Mechanism, though major methodological gaps remain unresolved. 

While COP30 lacked the breakthrough many hoped for, it nonetheless marked a shift toward a more pragmatic, decentralised and multi-track climate regime. The challenge now is to turn incremental progress into system-wide change at the speed demanded by science. As attention moves to COP31 in Türkiye, where climate finance, trade and the needs of vulnerable states are expected to dominate, the paper underscores that the race for resilience is accelerating, and the countries that act fastest will shape the next phase of global climate action.

To read COP30: “The COP of Truth” and the Road to Türkiye” and explore the Foundation’s full library of publications, visit abhafoundation.org.