As the world edges closer to dangerous climate thresholds, the 2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) has left energy-producing regions facing a stark reality: the era of climate promises is ending, and the era of delivery has begun. In its latest Sustainability Research Paper, the Al-Attiyah Foundation provides a comprehensive assessment of the conference and its implications for global climate action, with particular focus on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) as a region at the centre of both climate risk and energy transition 

Titled “COP30 and Global Climate Action,” the paper argues that the summit in Belém marked a structural shift in climate governance. While national ambition continued to lag scientific necessity, non-state actors, cities, businesses and financial institutions, emerged as the primary drivers of implementation. COP30 confirmed that current national commitments place the world on a 2.3–2.8°C warming trajectory by 2100, well above the 1.5°C Paris threshold, even as the UNFCCC formally acknowledged for the first time that a temporary overshoot of 1.5°C is now likely. 

For the Middle East, the findings carry particular weight. MENA hydrocarbon producers derive between 40 and 90 percent of government revenues from oil and gas, while simultaneously facing extreme climate stress, rapid population growth, rising cooling demand and mounting exposure to carbon border adjustment mechanisms in key export markets. The paper highlights that approximately 83 percent of the region’s population already experiences extreme water stress, with climate-driven heat and drought amplifying energy and infrastructure risks.

COP30 delivered incremental but significant outcomes. Parties confirmed a global climate finance mobilisation target of USD 1.3 trillion annually by 2035 and agreed to triple adaptation finance over the same period. However, the report underscores that finance availability is no longer the primary bottleneck; instead, project preparation, municipal creditworthiness and delivery capacity, particularly in cities, are now the binding constraints. 
The paper also examines the implications of COP30 for carbon markets and energy exporters. While progress was made on operationalising Article 6 of the Paris Agreement and confirming the closure of the Clean Development Mechanism by 2026, the absence of agreed fossil-fuel transition language, despite support from more than 80 countries, signals that decarbonisation will continue to be driven by voluntary coalitions and market mechanisms rather than binding multilateral mandates. For MENA producers, this raises the stakes for product-level carbon accounting, methane reduction and supply-chain transparency as carbon border measures expand. 

At the regional level, the paper points to emerging models of pragmatic transition. Country platforms such as Egypt’s Nexus of Water, Food and Energy (NWFE) and Morocco’s climate finance platform demonstrate how aggregating projects into investable pipelines can overcome credit constraints. Qatar’s integrated climate governance framework is highlighted as a case study in balancing fiscal reliance on hydrocarbons with domestic decarbonisation, renewable deployment, carbon capture and climate-resilient infrastructure planning.

COP30 marked a decisive pivot from ambition to execution. The next five years will determine whether climate commitments translate into measurable outcomes, particularly in regions where energy security, fiscal stability and climate resilience are deeply intertwined. For the Middle East, the challenge is no longer whether to engage in the transition, but how quickly and credibly it can turn climate risk into strategic advantage in a rapidly fragmenting global system. 

To read COP30 and Global Climate Action and explore the Al-Attiyah Foundation’s full Sustainability Research Series, visit abhafoundation.org