Doha: 4th of March 2026

As global energy leaders gathered under the bright lights of LNG2026 in Doha, against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and intensifying transition pressures, a powerful signal cut through the noise: liquefied natural gas is not retreating, it is advancing, and the Middle East stands at the centre of its next chapter.

In a special episode of the Al-Attiyah Foundation Podcast recorded on the sidelines of the annual conference, Xi Nan, Partner at Rystad Energy, outlined a confident supply trajectory for the years ahead.

“We think global LNG supply is forecast to reach around 530 million tonnes by 2028,” she said. “This will be about 100 million tonnes more than what we saw in 2025. More than 70 million tonnes per annum of capacity got Final Investment Decision (FID) in 2025, which will further drive production in the next three to five years.” Looking further ahead, she added that “global LNG output could reach even 680 million tonnes by 2032.”
The Middle East, alongside North America, is central to this expansion. “North America and the Middle East are the two regions driving… additional supplies,” Xi Nan noted, while acknowledging that delays and cost overruns remain part of LNG’s historical pattern. Qatar’s ongoing North Field expansion, which is set to raise capacity from 77 million tonnes per annum to 126 mtpa by 2027, with further growth to 142 mtpa before the end of the decade, underlines the region’s long-term competitiveness and low-cost advantage.

Although project costs have risen sharply since the pandemic, investment momentum continues. “The methodology of sanctioning new LNG projects stays more or less the same. But of course, the cost has been much higher — around 20%, probably even higher for certain projects globally,” she said. The United States is expected to act as the marginal supplier, with projects breaking even at “around $10 to $11 per MMBTU, including the shipping costs to East Asia.”

Crucially, Xi Nan believes supply through the 2020s is secure. “This decade… I think it’s well secured.” Beyond that, however, further final investment decisions will be required, with around 120 million tonnes of new FID needed by 2040 to maintain balance.
On the demand side, Asia continues to anchor growth. “Asia will keep driving global energy demand and growth and also peak around 2042 at 510 million tonnes,” she said, highlighting China’s central role and rising consumption across South Asia. Structural fuel switching from coal and oil to gas remains a key driver, even in price-sensitive markets.

Addressing decarbonisation policies, Xi Nan was clear that they are reshaping and not undermining the sector. “The decarbonisation policies are reshaping the LNG industry. It’s not killing the industry,” she emphasised, noting that lower-emissions projects with electrified liquefaction or carbon capture will be increasingly favoured.

As discussions in Doha made clear, LNG continues to sit at the intersection of energy security, affordability and sustainability with the Middle East firmly positioned at the centre of the next phase of global growth.